Stephen McBride explore what happened in 2024 and the outlook for the future in a three part feature at the Rational Optimist Society.
When our grandkids pull up the charts 50 years from now, they’ll ask: “WTF happened in 2024?” […] they’ll be asking why things suddenly started getting better.
After 50 years of rust and decline, American manufacturing is roaring back to life. Spending on new factories hit $1.4 trillion last year… easily a record.
Most of that $1.4 trillion is being used to build computer chip, electric vehicle, and battery factories. These are the building blocks of tomorrow’s economy.
Meanwhile, our best and brightest are focused on producing cheap, abundant energy again. Big tech is investing in next-gen nuclear. Fracking has already lifted American energy production to new records… and just might give us cheap geothermal next.
This resurgence of real-world innovation can usher in a new era of widespread prosperity. The digital revolution helped coders get rich but eliminated a lot of other jobs. Building real, physical stuff gives opportunities to many more people. You can already see glimmers in the statistics.
According to the Federal Reserve, the bottom half of Americans now own $3.9 trillion in wealth—a record.
And data from Bank of America shows wages for lower-income earners are growing at a faster clip than for high-income households. For the first time in half a century, America is building again. The spirit of innovation that gave us the transcontinental railroad, the Apollo program, and the Empire State Building is waking up from its 50-year slumber.
This renaissance is washing across the entire economy. Five specific innovations are driving the transformation. I call them “The Five Frontiers.”
1. The energy enlightenment that enables all other innovation
America is entering a new age of energy abundance. This isn’t just about cheaper electric bills. Energy abundance will give us robot helpers in every home. It will automate factories. It could revive America’s manufacturing might.2. The transformation of transportation
WTF happened in 2024?
There’s something powerful and inspiring about seeing innovation take physical form. When a robot car drives you across town or a flying drone lands at your doorstep, you “feel” the future.
3: Biotech breakthroughs
In a single year, we’ve given sight to the blind, hearing to the deaf, movement to the paralyzed, and hope to cancer patients. We’re showing human ingenuity can conquer almost any disease, whether it takes lizard spit, engineered viruses, or chips in our brains.
4: Physical AI—robots that learn
There’s a long-running joke that AI can easily beat the world’s best chess player but can’t fold a crumpled t-shirt. It’s funny because it’s true. Simple physical tasks have been incredibly hard for robots to master.
5: The final frontier
Space isn’t just a place we visit anymore. It’s becoming a place where we work, travel, and manufacture. One day, future generations may live there. Space is also one of the fastest-growing, most exciting industries. SpaceX is the world’s most valuable private company, worth $350 billion. The final frontier is open for business.
Part #2: The Five Frontiers
Part #3: The Final Frontiers
